Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Tiny
bryle- · 10 games
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 8 games
Marcioften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
233 picks · 242 bans
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
Rubick
205 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 540 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 414 bans
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 21%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:30
Thiuth Gaming 15%TSM 85%
The model gave 85% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 19:14.
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Thiuth Gaming 15%TSM 85%
The model gave 85% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 30:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 85%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2