Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tusksignature
Zayac · 22 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 17 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 17 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 12 games
Marcioften banned
Taiga · 12 games
Viperoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
Tusk
330 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
230 picks · 240 bans
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 536 bans
Rubick
199 picks · 167 bans
Leshrac
196 picks · 413 bans
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total58% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Team Secret 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaBOOM
LinaYuragi
Drow RangerCrystallis
Tinybzm
Primal BeastResolut1on
SnapfireDM
TechiesZayac
TuskTaiga
MarciPuppey
ClockwerkMisha
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Team Secret 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistCrystallis
UrsaYuragi
PangolierBOOM
Puckbzm
Legion CommanderResolut1on
BroodmotherDM
RubickPuppey
HoodwinkMisha
PhoenixZayac
TuskTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 58%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2