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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 20 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 11 games
27%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Q · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
42%
Doom
Doomsignature
23savage · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 328 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
228 picks · 240 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 536 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
199 picks · 166 bans
59%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 412 bans
59%
Silencer
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total77% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:41
BOOM Esports 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
47% · 154 games50% · 211 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
47% · 286 games51% · 170 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
51% · 53 games53% · 204 games
TuskJabz
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXepher
44% · 209 games55% · 243 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorxNova
50% · 143 games51% · 17 games
RikiOli
Riki
Game 2prediction missed17:32
BOOM Esports 66%Talon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYopaj
39% · 86 games51% · 122 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNatsumi
49% · 130 games58% · 187 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
47% · 53 games53% · 109 games
TuskJabz
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXepher
48% · 227 games51% · 141 game
MiranaQ
Mirana
Abaddon
AbaddonxNova
49% · 75 games67% · 12 games
RikiOli
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 77%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2