Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
Tiny
Topson · 10 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
Marcioften banned
Xepher · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 7 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
Tusk
328 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
228 picks · 238 bans
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 535 bans
Rubick
198 picks · 165 bans
Leshrac
196 picks · 412 bans
Silencer
185 picks · 223 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:30
Bleed Esports 20%Fnatic 80%
The model gave 80% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 44:06.
Game 2prediction missed38:24
Bleed Esports 20%Fnatic 80%
The model gave 80% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 1:04:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 80%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2