Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfire
Matthew · 22 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 13 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 12 games
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
Ravens
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 12 games
Tiny
d1smar · 9 games
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
345 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
225 picks · 237 bans
Crystal Maiden
219 picks · 145 bans
Leshrac
200 picks · 416 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 535 bans
Rubick
197 picks · 162 bans
Snapfire
187 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:14
Thunder Awaken 58%Ravens 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
LinaDaaD-
BatriderILICH-
KunkkaPiPi
TinyMichael
Primal BeastBenjaz
MiranaAccel
UndyingCara
48% · 228 games
Rubickd1smar
Game 2prediction correct30:16
Thunder Awaken 57%Ravens 43%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSmiling Knight
SpectreDaaD-
Nature's ProphetILICH-
TuskPiPi
Dark WillowMichael
Legion CommanderBenjaz
Treant ProtectorAccel
Miranad1smar
56% · 40 games
SilencerCara
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 66%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2