Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
APAntarctic Penguinswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Tinysignature
XinQ · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 16 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 10 games
Pucksignature
Somnus · 10 games
Marcisignature
Kaka · 9 games
Vipersignature
Chalice · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Chalice · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
223 picks · 236 bans
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 533 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 415 bans
Rubick
196 picks · 157 bans
Snapfire
188 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:26
LGD Gaming 67%Antarctic Penguins 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinshiro
LinaeGo
MarsNothingToSay
PuckAlaCrity
HoodwinkpLAnet
RubickFelixCiaoBa
Enchantressy`
Treant ProtectorXCJ
Game 2prediction missed21:32
LGD Gaming 67%Antarctic Penguins 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectreshiro
PuckAlaCrity
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Shadow FiendeGo
MiranapLAnet
TuskFelixCiaoBa
Crystal Maideny`
Treant ProtectorXCJ
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultAntarctic Penguins 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2