Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
Svensignature
Fly · 8 games
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
Dazzlesignature
Fly · 7 games
Marcisignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
Tusk
Cr1t- · 7 games
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
333 picks · 331 bans
Mirana
223 picks · 236 bans
Crystal Maiden
214 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 533 bans
Leshrac
197 picks · 421 bans
Rubick
196 picks · 156 bans
Snapfire
191 picks · 107 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
Shopify Rebellion 78%Thiuth Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:34.
Game 2prediction correct43:5
Shopify Rebellion 78%Thiuth Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 78%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2