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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 8 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
86%
Chen
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 6 games
17%

Wildcard Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
The Warden · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 5 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Ark · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 339 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 331 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
222 picks · 235 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
214 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 532 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 421 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
195 picks · 155 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 107 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% TSM
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
TSM 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTimado
56% · 43 games41% · 109 games
DoomArk
Doom
Lycan
Lycankasane
56% · 92 games41% · 64 games
Nature's ProphetSunlight
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
Tuskbryle-
56% · 310 games49% · 415 games
TinyBabitich
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaAri
49% · 252 games48% · 194 games
SnapfireFrancisLee
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
56% · 147 games49% · 62 games
PugnaSammyboy
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct32:15
TSM 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTimado
53% · 191 game42% · 66 games
SniperArk
Sniper
Tusk
Tuskbryle-
50% · 309 games54% · 126 games
Primal BeastBabitich
Primal Beast
Lycan
Lycankasane
49% · 118 games47% · 151 game
LeshracSunlight
Leshrac
Rubick
RubickAri
49% · 222 games48% · 624 games
TinyFrancisLee
Tiny
Marci
MarciWhitemon
59% · 345 games49% · 218 games
ClockwerkSammyboy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 72%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2