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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 10 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 9 games
56%

Entity

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 339 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 330 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
221 picks · 234 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 144 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 418 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 532 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
195 picks · 152 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 107 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total53% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Entity 53%
The model gave 53% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 42:44.
Game 2prediction missed27:10
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Entity 53%
The model gave 53% on Entity — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:03.
Game 3prediction missed30:22
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Entity 53%
The model gave 53% on Entity — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3