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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
47%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Taiga · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 12 games
50%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
91%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 11 games
82%

Tundra Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
75%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
77%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 11 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
90%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Skiter · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 337 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 328 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
220 picks · 232 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 530 bans
52%
Leshrac
Leshrac
195 picks · 418 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
192 picks · 152 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 106 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:27
OG 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYuragi
40% · 155 games52% · 16 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
53% · 89 games55% · 127 games
Dragon KnightNine
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomDM
47% · 104 games55% · 151 game
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Riki
RikiTaiga
52% · 15 games52% · 162 games
RubickSaksa
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMisha
43% · 171 game55% · 78 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct24:36
OG 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
43% · 172 games57% · 90 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
42% · 52 games58% · 171 game
TuskNine
Tusk
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
44% · 113 games53% · 54 games
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
33% · 5 games52% · 58 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMisha
44% · 126 games62% · 95 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2