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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 336 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 326 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
220 picks · 229 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 528 bans
52%
Leshrac
Leshrac
194 picks · 418 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
191 picks · 152 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
189 picks · 106 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:21
Blacklist International 61%Bleed Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 44:23.
Game 2prediction missed9:23
Blacklist International 61%Bleed Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 30:09.
Game 3prediction missed29:16
Blacklist International 61%Bleed Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 49:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3