Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Rubick
Hishge · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marssignature
eleven · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
ace12 · 8 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
339 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
329 picks · 326 bans
Mirana
219 picks · 229 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
197 picks · 528 bans
Leshrac
194 picks · 419 bans
Rubick
191 picks · 152 bans
Snapfire
189 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:26
Fnatic 60%Geek Fam 40%
The model gave 60% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:00.
Game 2prediction missed46:39
Fnatic 60%Geek Fam 40%
The model gave 60% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 56:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 60%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2