Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
Silencersignature
so bad · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 335 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 327 bans
Mirana
217 picks · 227 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 532 bans
Leshrac
195 picks · 422 bans
Snapfire
195 picks · 108 bans
Rubick
192 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:38
Nemiga Gaming 51%HellRaisers 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 39:45.
Game 2prediction correct40:22
Nemiga Gaming 51%HellRaisers 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:16.
Game 3prediction missed7:28
Nemiga Gaming 51%HellRaisers 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3