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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 336 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 329 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
218 picks · 227 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 533 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 422 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
195 picks · 108 bans
44%
Rubick
Rubick
191 picks · 145 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength67% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:14
LGD Gaming 71%Aster.Aries 29%
The model gave 71% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
55% · 88 games52% · 148 games
Chaos KnightUlu
Chaos Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 129 games53% · 243 games
TuskWhite丶Album
Tusk
Tiny
TinypLAnet
49% · 499 games54% · 210 games
Death Prophet生死
Death Prophet
Silencer
Silencery`
45% · 82 games46% · 80 games
EarthshakerOp
Earthshaker
48% · 117 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct32:10
LGD Gaming 68%Aster.Aries 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
42% · 72 games56% · 44 games
SlarkUlu
Slark
Tusk
TuskNothingToSay
51% · 303 games54% · 66 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
50% · 263 games44% · 77 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
49% · 128 games47% · 381 game
TinyOp
Tiny
55% · 198 games
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2