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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 24 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Asao · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
payk · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 5 games
0%
Windranger
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Largo
Largooften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 291 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
355 picks · 151 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 159 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 472 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 463 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 263 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
268 picks · 183 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
MOUZ 73%Hokori 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:05.
Game 2prediction correct35:10
MOUZ 65%Hokori 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren423
57% · 56 games39% · 127 games
Drow Rangerpayk
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomBOOM
53% · 184 games46% · 450 games
PangolierWonderk1d
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
55% · 313 games48% · 74 games
Night StalkerVitaly
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
52% · 537 games41% · 373 games
Dark WillowAsao
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoOz
60% · 168 games48% · 234 games
UndyingGardick
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2