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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 19 games
58%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 51 game
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 30 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 29 games
72%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 29 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 291 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 159 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
355 picks · 152 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 473 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
302 picks · 300 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 466 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
285 picks · 263 bans
58%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 367 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
LGD Gaming 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
49% · 272 games51% · 117 games
Dark SeerWs
Dark Seer
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
52% · 259 games49% · 316 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSumaiL
48% · 161 game50% · 284 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 167 games52% · 301 game
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
47% · 241 game53% · 82 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct19:41
LGD Gaming 41%Aurora Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
46% · 187 games52% · 52 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 296 games52% · 82 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Techies
TechiesThiolicor
51% · 165 games50% · 78 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Axe
AxeDavai
52% · 186 games53% · 567 games
HoodwinkKaori
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
33% · 21 game49% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 68%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2