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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Cobraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 19 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Ekki · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
rincyq · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
aik · 8 games
63%

Team Cobra

Bane
Baneoften banned
StingeR · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CoYoTão · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
StingeR · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
StingeR · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Parker · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 158 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
352 picks · 151 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 469 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 460 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
282 picks · 261 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
271 picks · 364 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:16
Pipsqueak+4 66%Team Cobra 34%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
53% · 189 games54% · 43 games
LunaParker
Luna
Lycan
LycanMalik
52% · 122 games56% · 223 games
Ember SpiritLumpy
Ember Spirit
Slark
SlarkCopy
55% · 76 games41% · 91 game
AxeFrank
Axe
Mirana
Miranaaik
50% · 165 games47% · 159 games
ClockwerkCoYoTão
Clockwerk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterEkki
50% · 69 games44% · 105 games
DisruptorStingeR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed54:50
Pipsqueak+4 67%Team Cobra 33%
The model gave 67% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Team Cobra in 57:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
50% · 165 games50% · 139 games
Void SpiritLumpy
Void Spirit
Viper
ViperMalik
55% · 142 games51% · 112 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
52% · 397 games39% · 160 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterEkki
52% · 69 games44% · 27 games
Crystal MaidenStingeR
Crystal Maiden
Dazzle
Dazzleaik
53% · 100 games54% · 435 games
HoodwinkCoYoTão
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct44:16
Pipsqueak+4 65%Team Cobra 35%
The model gave 65% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrincyq
51% · 179 games45% · 112 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Axe
AxeMalik
49% · 260 games49% · 180 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
47% · 109 games55% · 135 games
Void SpiritLumpy
Void Spirit
Mirana
Miranaaik
48% · 186 games52% · 523 games
HoodwinkCoYoTão
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowEkki
47% · 301 game60% · 85 games
MarciStingeR
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 76%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3