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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 21 game
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 12 games
75%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 38 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
мистер мораль · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
354 picks · 151 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
353 picks · 159 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 471 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 463 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
282 picks · 262 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:25
Natus Vincere 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetgotthejuice
49% · 120 games44% · 66 games
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
42% · 124 games61% · 130 games
Largo33
Largo
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
45% · 287 games47% · 245 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
51% · 79 games51% · 102 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDaze
56% · 38 games58% · 105 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Natus Vincere 60%1w Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
50% · 97 games48% · 75 games
LunaShad
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
51% · 291 game48% · 134 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Lina
LinaNiku
43% · 87 games55% · 207 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
49% · 48 games57% · 161 game
Winter WyvernWhitemon
Winter Wyvern
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
46% · 227 games51% · 173 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct38:11
Natus Vincere 60%1w Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidgotthejuice
59% · 124 games48% · 161 game
ViperShad
Viper
Windranger
Windrangerpma
45% · 380 games55% · 138 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Undying
UndyingNiku
47% · 217 games49% · 193 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
49% · 233 games45% · 275 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskDaze
54% · 449 games50% · 636 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3