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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Solitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lwwnb · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Night · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zzq · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Echo · 3 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
100%

Solitude

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
100%
Warlock
Warlock
Undyne_ · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Son GoKu · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
7e · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 338 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 327 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
219 picks · 226 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 538 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 144 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
202 picks · 111 bans
43%
Leshrac
Leshrac
200 picks · 429 bans
59%
Silencer
Silencer
198 picks · 234 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% EHOME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
EHOME 64%Solitude 36%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkmks-
57% · 10 games49% · 72 games
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
Centaur Warrunner
Kunkka
KunkkaNight
53% · 11 games
Death Prophet
Death Prophetxiaoyu154
60% · 21 game
Tiny
TinyCatYou
37% · 23 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLwwnb
45% · 7 games
Game 2prediction correct36:30
EHOME 65%Solitude 35%
The model gave 65% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetmks-
43% · 19 games50% · 227 games
Dragon KnightSon GoKu
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerNight
60% · 16 games
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
46% · 107 games
Snapfire
SnapfireLwwnb
61% · 53 games
Rubick
RubickCatYou
39% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 76%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2