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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Antarctic Penguinsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ori · 18 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Xxs · 11 games
55%

Antarctic Penguins

Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 17 games
59%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 11 games
36%
Marci
Marcisignature
xNova · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Somnus · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
Chalice · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 8 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
xNova · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 337 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 329 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
219 picks · 224 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
211 picks · 538 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 145 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
203 picks · 112 bans
43%
Leshrac
Leshrac
202 picks · 433 bans
59%
Silencer
Silencer
198 picks · 234 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Team Aster 73%Antarctic Penguins 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMonet
47% · 93 games55% · 142 games
Faceless VoideGo
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
47% · 164 games55% · 217 games
TuskAlaCrity
Tusk
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 171 game56% · 184 games
RubickFelixCiaoBa
Rubick
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
41% · 81 game52% · 66 games
SilencerXCJ
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFantasy
41% · 100 games
Game 2prediction missed19:30
Team Aster 74%Antarctic Penguins 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMonet
53% · 105 games50% · 169 games
ViperAlaCrity
Viper
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXwy
51% · 78 games50% · 103 games
Shadow FiendeGo
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomXxs
45% · 89 games47% · 212 games
RubickFelixCiaoBa
Rubick
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
47% · 283 games62% · 121 game
Treant ProtectorXCJ
Treant Protector
Lich
LichFantasy
40% · 50 games
Game 3prediction correct36:22
Team Aster 73%Antarctic Penguins 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:04:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMonet
53% · 42 games50% · 130 games
ViperAlaCrity
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
47% · 187 games53% · 132 games
Faceless VoideGo
Faceless Void
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
41% · 131 game52% · 162 games
ClockwerkXCJ
Clockwerk
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
54% · 216 games51% · 246 games
MiranaFelixCiaoBa
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
49% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 90%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3