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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 7 games
86%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
86%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
so bad · 6 games
83%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
yamich · 24 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 22 games
82%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
DM · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 350 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 324 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
231 picks · 569 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 122 bans
45%
Undying
Undying
221 picks · 387 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
220 picks · 441 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
219 picks · 222 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 147 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:13
Nemiga Gaming 48%Virtus.pro 52%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
50% · 188 games48% · 443 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
49% · 37 games58% · 79 games
Pudgekrylat
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
54% · 236 games37% · 40 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickHellscream
49% · 179 games50% · 36 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorso bad
52% · 81 game50% · 123 games
IoDukalis
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:11
Nemiga Gaming 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
55% · 85 games45% · 97 games
Shadow Fiendkrylat
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
50% · 306 games52% · 90 games
VisageNoticed
Visage
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
51% · 209 games46% · 280 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Silencer
Silencerso bad
56% · 86 games51% · 242 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
Rubick
RubickHellscream
49% · 158 games45% · 135 games
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2