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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Io
Iosignature
GH · 10 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
78%
Zeus
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
Miracle- · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
363 picks · 350 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 325 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
234 picks · 570 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
228 picks · 123 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
226 picks · 450 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
223 picks · 398 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
219 picks · 217 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
216 picks · 146 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:5
Entity 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:53.
Game 2prediction missed35:21
Entity 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:28.
Game 3prediction missed17:27
Entity 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 56%
Series resultEntity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3