BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Iosignature
GH · 10 games
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Pudgesignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Tusksignature
GH · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
366 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 322 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 569 bans
Marci
228 picks · 455 bans
Undying
228 picks · 401 bans
Snapfire
225 picks · 121 bans
Mirana
217 picks · 217 bans
Crystal Maiden
216 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:33
Nigma Galaxy 56%HellRaisers 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 34:26.
Game 2prediction missed25:41
Nigma Galaxy 56%HellRaisers 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 39:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2