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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 16 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 23 games
61%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 22 games
82%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 16 games
63%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 360 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 326 bans
60%
Marci
Marci
251 picks · 485 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 577 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
240 picks · 447 bans
51%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
229 picks · 596 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
229 picks · 131 bans
46%
Mirana
Mirana
217 picks · 216 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
Gaimin Gladiators 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 52:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
49% · 49 games49% · 66 games
Ursakrylat
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
50% · 151 game50% · 158 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusAce
53% · 33 games54% · 65 games
BroodmotherNoticed
Broodmother
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
45% · 158 games51% · 112 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSeleri
47% · 75 games56% · 65 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct36:23
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
51% · 292 games56% · 87 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Pudge
Pudgedyrachyo
46% · 131 game60% · 50 games
Lifestealerkrylat
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
51% · 101 game51% · 168 games
SnapfireNoticed
Snapfire
Techies
TechiestOfu
51% · 51 game47% · 296 games
Tinysayuw
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
49% · 142 games44% · 116 games
HoodwinkDukalis
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2