European Pro League Season 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
X3win 3:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:2
IVYloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Tinysignature
velheor · 23 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
Jakirosignature
dark · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
IVY
Tiny
Qupe · 34 games
Mirana
Qupe · 25 games
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 18 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 17 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 15 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
374 picks · 360 bans
Tusk
340 picks · 326 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 574 bans
Marci
251 picks · 493 bans
Undying
242 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 596 bans
Snapfire
227 picks · 131 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% X3
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:17
X3 53%IVY 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
Lunapio65
BatriderNattyNarwhal
DawnbreakerMo13ei
EnigmaShergarat
VisageOwnedMe
Treant Protectordark
TuskQupe
TinyHeaven
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Game 2prediction missed16:51
X3 54%IVY 46%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by IVY in 1:00:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
LinaMo13ei
LycanShergarat
Slarkpio65
Mirananesfeer
Primal BeastOwnedMe
HoodwinkHeaven
Chenjmn-
Clockwerkdark
TuskQupe
Game 3prediction correct34:15
X3 51%IVY 49%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangernesfeer
DoomOwnedMe
Legion CommanderShergarat
LinaMo13ei
TuskNattyNarwhal
Chaos Knightpio65
RubickHeaven
SnapfireQupe
Treant Protectordark
Banejmn-
Game 4prediction missed39:47
X3 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on X3 — the game was taken by IVY in 1:14:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNattyNarwhal
ViperMo13ei
Ember Spiritnesfeer
Doompio65
Legion CommanderShergarat
TuskOwnedMe
Dark WillowHeaven
Winter Wyvernjmn-
Treant Protectordark
RubickQupe
Game 5prediction correct37:15
X3 53%IVY 47%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linanesfeer
Lunapio65
TuskNattyNarwhal
TinyMo13ei
Legion CommanderShergarat
Centaur WarrunnerOwnedMe
RubickHeaven
Treant Protectorjmn-
Undyingdark
SnapfireQupe
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 57%
Series resultX3 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5