European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 21 game
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 14 games
Linasignature
Stojkov · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Mary_y · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
372 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 325 bans
Marci
259 picks · 494 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 574 bans
Undying
245 picks · 457 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 598 bans
Snapfire
223 picks · 129 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:12
Monaspa 78%Water Rune Enjoyers 22%
The model gave 78% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 51:17.
Game 2prediction missed9:14
Monaspa 78%Water Rune Enjoyers 22%
The model gave 78% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 16:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 78%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2