Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mmonopolyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
Linaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Sniperoften banned
BSJ · 3 games
Tiny
Newsham · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Jakiro
Sonic · 2 games
Keeper of the Light
Sonic · 2 games
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 321 bans
Marci
262 picks · 497 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 576 bans
Undying
246 picks · 459 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 600 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 129 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 140 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
Fart Studios 54%monopoly 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 31:34.
Game 2prediction correct42:20
Fart Studios 54%monopoly 46%
The model gave 54% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 31:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 54%
Series resultFart Studios 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2