Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Blinkloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Team Blink
Silenceroften banned
smN · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Mirana
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
374 picks · 351 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 317 bans
Marci
268 picks · 502 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 573 bans
Undying
249 picks · 460 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
221 picks · 127 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Blink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Monaspa 65%Team Blink 35%
The model gave 65% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Blink in 23:25.
Game 2prediction missed25:47
Monaspa 65%Team Blink 35%
The model gave 65% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Blink in 36:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 65%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2