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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hot Headed Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 31 game
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
dSa · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
50%

Hot Headed Gaming

Lycan
Lycanoften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
MikSa` · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MikSa` · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
373 picks · 351 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 316 bans
60%
Marci
Marci
268 picks · 504 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 573 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
250 picks · 461 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
238 picks · 602 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
221 picks · 127 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 352 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Hot Headed Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hot Headed Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Sigma.YNT 48%Hot Headed Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenv1olent-
67% · 29 games47% · 49 games
BroodmotherMikSa`
Broodmother
Lycan
Lycankur0patbI4
59% · 37 games47% · 97 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Windranger
Windrangerforyou
61% · 19 games
Jakiro
JakiroVANSKOR
41% · 39 games
Sven
Svenqueezy
40% · 22 games
Game 2prediction missed46:26
Sigma.YNT 46%Hot Headed Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracforyou
53% · 58 games47% · 60 games
BroodmotherMikSa`
Broodmother
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
59% · 19 games53% · 225 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Venomancer
Venomancerkur0patbI4
53% · 22 games
Tiny
Tinyqueezy
47% · 168 games
Lich
LichVANSKOR
27% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHot Headed Gaming · 54%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2