Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
No[o]ne · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Clockwerk
RodjER · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 4 games
Keeper of the Light
Malik · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Hduo · 4 games
Tusk
Topson · 4 games
PSG Quest
Tiny
OmaR · 17 games
Io
Eixn · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 7 games
Marcioften banned
OmaR · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 7 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
373 picks · 348 bans
Tusk
333 picks · 314 bans
Marci
267 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 570 bans
Undying
250 picks · 463 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 126 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 78%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
Old G 60%PSG Quest 40%
The model gave 60% on Old G — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNo[o]ne
MorphlingTA2000
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
PuckNo!ob
Ancient ApparitionTopson
Death ProphetWuiter
HoodwinkMSS
TuskOmaR
Marcin0tail
SnapfireKaori
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Old G 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Old G — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaNo[o]ne
Naga SirenTA2000
Sand KingCeb
DoomWuiter
TuskTopson
PangolierNo!ob
MiranaMSS
PhoenixKaori
Silencern0tail
RubickOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 73%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2