Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Drink Waterwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritsignature
Young PH · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ksh · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
373 picks · 348 bans
Tusk
333 picks · 314 bans
Marci
267 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 570 bans
Undying
250 picks · 463 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 126 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 73%
Hero pool strength61% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yangon Galacticos 43%Drink Water 57%
The model gave 57% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Drink Water.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 57%
Series resultDrink Water 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1