Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRERandoms Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South America Rejectswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Randoms Esports
Troll Warlordoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Benny · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 1 game
South America Rejects
Tusk
Duster · 2 games
Clockwerk
DFlash · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Mandy · 1 game
Hoodwink
Duster · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Linaoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
Razoroften banned
FCR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
370 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 306 bans
Marci
272 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 568 bans
Undying
249 picks · 465 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% South America Rejects
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Randoms Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
Randoms Esports 60%South America Rejects 40%
The model gave 60% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBenny
TerrorbladeMandy
52% · 42 games
TimbersawFCR
49% · 41 game
Invokermurd0c
51% · 35 games
DawnbreakerDuster
50% · 18 games
LionDFlash
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Randoms Esports 60%South America Rejects 40%
The model gave 60% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Randoms Esports in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBenny
TerrorbladeMandy
45% · 7 games
UnderlordFCR
54% · 24 games
Pangoliermurd0c
39% · 29 games
DawnbreakerDuster
64% · 7 games
SilencerDFlash
Game 3prediction missed36:39
Randoms Esports 63%South America Rejects 37%
The model gave 63% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 53:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanBenny
JuggernautMandy
39% · 27 games
Ember Spiritmurd0c
38% · 4 games
Legion CommanderFCR
35% · 22 games
Nyx AssassinDuster
33% · 11 games
Skywrath MageDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteRandoms Esports · 69%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3