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European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 34 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 26 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 19 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 17 games
59%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
15%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
45%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
44%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 13 games
23%
Lina
Linasignature
Stojkov · 12 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
73%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Palantimos · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 346 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 304 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
272 picks · 507 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 568 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
249 picks · 464 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
220 picks · 124 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 346 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% IVY
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
IVY 65%Water Rune Enjoyers 35%
The model gave 65% on IVY — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Game 2prediction correct
IVY 65%Water Rune Enjoyers 35%
The model gave 65% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY.
Game 3prediction correct
IVY 65%Water Rune Enjoyers 35%
The model gave 65% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 65%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3