Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionRERandoms Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Randoms Esports
Gyrocopteroften banned
Benny · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
ShakaLord · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
DM · 2 games
Venomanceroften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
369 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
330 picks · 304 bans
Marci
272 picks · 507 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 568 bans
Undying
248 picks · 462 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 601 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 122 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Randoms Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:53
Randoms Esports 46%Balrogs 54%
The model gave 54% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordBenny
RazorDM
52% · 17 games
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
47% · 13 games
Legion Commanderdrakesh1t
63% · 12 games
RubickDemon
40% · 6 games
JakiroShakaLord
Game 2prediction correct14:44
Randoms Esports 45%Balrogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordBenny
BloodseekerDM
68% · 15 games
Razordrakesh1t
45% · 16 games
TuskÑengoflow KELOKE
50% · 16 games
MiranaDemon
40% · 6 games
SilencerShakaLord
Model check result
Model favoriteRandoms Esports · 51%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2