Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOTUloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sigma.YNT
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 30 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 21 game
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
363 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 298 bans
Marci
273 picks · 517 bans
Undying
253 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 562 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 595 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% HOTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
Sigma.YNT 43%HOTU 57%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 39:16.
Game 2prediction missed
Sigma.YNT 43%HOTU 57%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 57%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2