Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Drink Waterwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SESky Encore Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Sky Encore Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
363 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 298 bans
Marci
273 picks · 517 bans
Undying
253 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 562 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 595 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Sky Encore Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:13
Drink Water 67%Sky Encore Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 33:55.
Game 2prediction missed24:37
Drink Water 67%Sky Encore Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 42:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 67%
Series resultDrink Water 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2