Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Limit
Tusksignature
Echo · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Victoria · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Tiny
Yds · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 3 games
Lich
Victoria · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
362 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
321 picks · 298 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 560 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 594 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
218 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 73%
Hero pool strength64% Limit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Ybb Gaming 54%Limit 46%
The model gave 54% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Limit in 27:07.
Game 2prediction missed24:42
Ybb Gaming 54%Limit 46%
The model gave 54% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Limit in 38:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 54%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2