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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 10 games
90%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Se · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 5 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
50%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
38%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 8 games
25%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
29%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Se · 7 games
14%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 345 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
320 picks · 297 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
253 picks · 466 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 560 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
235 picks · 594 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
217 picks · 118 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 37%
Hero pool strength63% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:14
Lilgun 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal Beasteleven
61% · 42 games56% · 40 games
Night StalkerFortuneSoul
Night Stalker
Batrider
Batrider423
49% · 67 games50% · 128 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Rubick
Rubickace12
47% · 104 games45% · 165 games
SnapfireHated
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
46% · 120 games
Game 2prediction missed44:22
Lilgun 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 49:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnereleven
44% · 19 games48% · 133 games
DoomEnryu
Doom
Tiny
Tiny423
52% · 172 games54% · 90 games
LifestealerFortuneSoul
Lifestealer
Tusk
Tuskace12
55% · 68 games38% · 84 games
SilencerHated
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
57% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2