Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team CDMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Sj · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Team CDM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
361 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
320 picks · 297 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 560 bans
Primal Beast
235 picks · 594 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
217 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% iG Vitality
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
iG Vitality 57%Team CDM 43%
The model gave 57% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 57%
Series resultiG Vitality 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1