Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacywin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mmonopolyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
Invokeroften banned
red2 · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Puckoften banned
red2 · 1 game
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Tiny
Giant · 1 game
Tusk
Giant · 1 game
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
360 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
319 picks · 297 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 558 bans
Primal Beast
235 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
217 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Legacy 59%monopoly 41%
The model gave 59% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 29:27.
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Legacy 59%monopoly 41%
The model gave 59% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 36:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 59%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2