DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 1:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GG Boomloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Earthshaker
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 4 games
Pudge
Newsham · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Newsham · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 3 games
Pugna
empyrean5 · 3 games
GG Boom
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
645 picks · 713 bans
Tiny
519 picks · 471 bans
Tusk
489 picks · 394 bans
Warlock
436 picks · 293 bans
Phoenix
400 picks · 340 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1086 bans
Puck
385 picks · 800 bans
Mars
383 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength65% GG Boom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
the bug 55%GG Boom 45%
The model gave 55% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 55%
Series resultthe bug 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1