Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 19 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 7 games
Warlock
kickeed · 7 games
Winter Bear
Axe
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 1 game
Razoroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Skywrath Mageoften banned
9Class · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
359 picks · 335 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
252 picks · 463 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 550 bans
Primal Beast
232 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 339 bans
Snapfire
213 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Hydra 63%Winter Bear 37%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidKami
DawnbreakerTheBloodySky
BeastmasterCloud
Skywrath Mage9Class
Ember SpiritWorick
Keeper of the LightLefitan
MiranaHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct43:14
Hydra 65%Winter Bear 35%
The model gave 65% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCloud
Death ProphetTheBloodySky
Faceless VoidKami
Monkey King9Class
Ember SpiritWorick
Keeper of the LightLefitan
TuskHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 77%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2