?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
57%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 329 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 290 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
274 picks · 518 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
244 picks · 548 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
230 picks · 589 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 337 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
213 picks · 113 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:45
One Move 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
50% · 171 game49% · 93 games
LeshracMTD
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusAinkrad
45% · 130 games56% · 30 games
Slarklil pleb
Slark
Magnus
MagnusAfterLife
61% · 26 games52% · 26 games
Dark SeermeLes
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickGilgir
50% · 178 games50% · 357 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPanto
56% · 50 games44% · 49 games
SilencerLeBronDota
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct33:12
One Move 60%Ancient Tribe 40%
The model gave 60% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMunkushi~
52% · 40 games56% · 71 game
Ursalil pleb
Ursa
Lycan
LycanAfterLife
55% · 88 games49% · 170 games
Death ProphetMTD
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
54% · 159 games46% · 107 games
Sand KingmeLes
Sand King
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
53% · 94 games49% · 135 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Rubick
RubickGilgir
46% · 150 games38% · 48 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 3prediction correct42:18
One Move 62%Ancient Tribe 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
63% · 89 games49% · 133 games
Terrorbladelil pleb
Terrorblade
Tusk
TuskAinkrad
51% · 171 game47% · 227 games
PangoliermeLes
Pangolier
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAfterLife
36% · 63 games43% · 144 games
KunkkaMTD
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaPanto
56% · 214 games56% · 129 games
Skywrath MageEkki
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGilgir
48% · 199 games47% · 103 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 73%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3