Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBER UNIONloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTUwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CYBER UNION
Tiny
Miyaoo · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
Arti_Shock · 11 games
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 288 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
252 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 545 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 587 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 336 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% HOTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% HOTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct65:35
CYBER UNION 43%HOTU 57%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the game was taken by HOTU in 56:09.
Game 2prediction correct22:46
CYBER UNION 43%HOTU 57%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the game was taken by HOTU in 40:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 57%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2