Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSESky Encore Esportswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RZ Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sky Encore Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Abat · 1 game
RZ Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 287 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
251 picks · 463 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 583 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Sky Encore Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% RZ Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:23
Sky Encore Esports 46%RZ Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on RZ Esports — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 33:39.
Game 2prediction missed38:15
Sky Encore Esports 46%RZ Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on RZ Esports — the game was taken by Sky Encore Esports in 23:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteRZ Esports · 54%
Series resultSky Encore Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2