Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMmonopolywin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Magnusloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
monopoly
No games played over 6 months.
Team Magnus
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 285 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
251 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 581 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% monopoly
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
monopoly 47%Team Magnus 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by monopoly in 35:25.
Game 2prediction correct46:50
monopoly 47%Team Magnus 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 53:06.
Game 3prediction missed45:26
monopoly 47%Team Magnus 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by monopoly in 41:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 53%
Series resultmonopoly 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3