Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
JustPlaYGameloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FH Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustPlaYGame
No games played over 6 months.
FH Gaming
Lich
斗圣 · 4 games
Dazzle
斗圣 · 3 games
Disruptor
斗圣 · 3 games
Mirana
斗圣 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
353 picks · 324 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 280 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
250 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 541 bans
Primal Beast
229 picks · 577 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 335 bans
Snapfire
211 picks · 109 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% JustPlaYGame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% FH Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:44
JustPlaYGame 47%FH Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 31:03.
Game 2prediction missed56:44
JustPlaYGame 47%FH Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by JustPlaYGame in 1:03:15.
Game 3prediction correct39:62
JustPlaYGame 47%FH Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on FH Gaming — the game was taken by FH Gaming in 39:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteFH Gaming · 53%
Series resultFH Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3