Randoms Esports vs South America Rejects — prediction DPC2S1ЮАЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

RERandoms Esportswin 2:0

series probability

73%27%

probability at match start · final 2:0

South America Rejectsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Randoms Esports

No games played over 6 months.

South America Rejects

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

352 picks · 323 bans

49%

Tusk

296 picks · 278 bans

58%

Marci

273 picks · 516 bans

55%

Undying

250 picks · 457 bans

52%

Pangolier

243 picks · 537 bans

53%

Primal Beast

228 picks · 575 bans

53%

Shadow Fiend

217 picks · 333 bans

54%

Crystal Maiden

210 picks · 127 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Randoms Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total73% Randoms Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct43:20

Randoms Esports 62%South America Rejects 38%

The model gave 62% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Randoms Esports in 38:19.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo