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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 62 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 35 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 35 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 31 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
646 picks · 724 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 479 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 395 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
437 picks · 295 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
400 picks · 337 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1094 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 570 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 803 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total71% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
PARIVISION 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
47% · 18 games48% · 95 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
51% · 414 games49% · 179 games
Queen of PainMidOne
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
49% · 217 games45% · 199 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
52% · 167 games50% · 255 games
Shadow Shamanaik
Shadow Shaman
Chen
ChenDukalis
53% · 210 games51% · 298 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct41:26
PARIVISION 61%MOUZ 39%
The model gave 61% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaSatanic
47% · 242 games43% · 258 games
Queen of PainMidOne
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
49% · 406 games53% · 175 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
51% · 484 games50% · 214 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
51% · 142 games52% · 258 games
Hoodwinkaik
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDukalis
64% · 100 games42% · 469 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 71%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2