Fart Studios vs Arkosh Gaming — prediction DPC2S1САЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Fart Studioswin 2:1

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fart Studios

No games played over 6 months.

Arkosh Gaming

Pudgeoften banned

Dendi · 2 games

Puckoften banned

Dendi · 1 game

Rubick

Dendi · 1 game

Tiny

Dendi · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

352 picks · 320 bans

49%

Tusk

293 picks · 278 bans

58%

Marci

273 picks · 516 bans

55%

Undying

250 picks · 457 bans

52%

Pangolier

243 picks · 536 bans

53%

Primal Beast

226 picks · 574 bans

53%

Shadow Fiend

217 picks · 333 bans

54%

Crystal Maiden

210 picks · 127 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Fart Studios

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% Fart Studios

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed37:40

Fart Studios 51%Arkosh Gaming 49%

The model gave 51% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 48:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo